CI Outlook - Archives

aPRIL 2013

 

In January we sighted Dow Theory as signaling potential new highs for the stock market.  It was January’s strength in the transportation stocks signaling that movement.  While the market indices subsequently set new highs, their progress has stalled throughout the month of March.  In the last few days the transportation stocks have failed to confirm a continuation of the advance.  We believe the market is entering a period of consolidation and perhaps even a price correction.  Since we believe the market’s long term secular trend is higher, we expect any correction to be short sharp and alarming.  If we are prepared, a correction is an opportunity to upgrade your portfolio.  Therefore we are continuing to sell defensive high yielding stocks like Vanguard Natural Resources.  And we are selling Wabash National because its management has indicated disappointing sales expectations.  We hope to use the funds generated from any sales to purchase companies with better growth prospects, once the correction has run its course.

Although we do not yet know the reasons why the market is stalling we have several ideas.  From a technical perspective markets have rallied a substantial way without a correction.  Technically this weakens markets and makes them vulnerable to the news.  Between Korea, Europe and Washington there is plenty of potentially unsettling news.  From a fundamental standpoint, warnings from FedEx and now the airlines signal plenty of room for disappointment.   First quarter earnings announcements begin next week and we expect many companies may use this period to ratchet down future expectations.  This may spill over into current rosy economic projections for a strong second half this year. 

We believe either or both of those negative settings will color market sentiment in the near term.  Memories of violent summer downturns in the last two years should add to the intensity of any selling that develops.  We hope to be able to take advantage of any bargains that develop.  As always we will keep your specific circumstances in mind as we continue to adjust your portfolio for the environment we expect ahead.


July 2014
JUNE 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
Feburary 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
aPRIL 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
Yead End 2007
December 2007
November 2007
Third Quarter 2007
September 2007
Second Quarter 2007
June 2007
May 2007
First Quarter 2007
March 2007
February 2007
Year End 2006
December 2006
November 2006
Third Quarter 2006
September 2006
Second Quarter 2006
First Quarter 2006
Fourth Quarter 2005
Third Quarter 2005
Second Quarter 2005
First Quarter 2005
Newsletter Year End 2004
Client Newsletter 2nd Quarter 2004
First Quarter 2004
Newsletter - Year End 2003
It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2003
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2003
Newsletter - Year End 2002
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 4th Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2001
Newsletter - Year End 2000
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2000