CI Outlook - Archives

September 2013

 

So far August was the worst month of the year.  The forward looking nature of the market kicked in last month and the events we fear this month depressed prices all through the month.  But the big question remains, was the 3% plus loss in August enough to discount the headline risk still looming in September?  Lost in the big events of a possible Syrian strike and a Federal Reserve “taper”, are headlines later this month.  They concern the German elections, appointment of a new head of our own central bank and a congressional battle over budget funding.  This is a lot to overcome.  And we believe it is enough risk to warrant continued caution towards US markets.  However we take note of the improving economic conditions in Europe and China and believe that they and the emerging markets will benefit from that strength.

Because we remain cautious on the near term outlook we have not committed capital from our recent sales of either Microsoft of the SPDR Technology fund.  We hope to add broader based technology and European ETF’s on any market weakness.  In the meantime we recently liquidated the small cap Brazil ETF and substituted the iShares emerging market ETF in its place.  We wanted to add the broader exposure of all emerging markets to your portfolio.  And we thought it necessary to reduce exposure to the increasingly socialist policies of President Rousseau and the current Brazilian regime.  However we have not lost faith in China.  We continue to own Chinese ETF’s and believe the improving economic situation there will continue to benefit those holdings.  That also remains the case with your investment in the currency hedged Wisdom Tree japan ETF. 

While we believe September will be a very volatile month for the markets we think it will provide opportunities to upgrade your portfolio.  As always we will continue to monitor the markets and your portfolio and make changes which appear suitable for your investment needs.


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