CI Outlook - Archives

Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2001

April 9, 2001

Mr. and Mrs. Investor
123 Elm Street
Dallas, Texas 72345

Dear Investor,

Enclosed with this letter you will find the quarterly summary for your Capital Ideas account.  As usual it shows your return for the period vs. the market.  It also contains realized profit and loss and your current holdings along with their cost basis.  Please look it over for completeness and accuracy then file it.  Your accountant will want this information next year.

On a happier note, we are putting the finishing touches on our move from Southwest Securities to First Clearing Corporation.  We hope this move will provide you with the latest in technology and communications services.  We are close to putting the web site for Capital Ideas online.  And, we hope to contact you next week with information on how to access your account information online at First Clearing.  We are looking forward to providing you with improved information and hope to steadily add new services as they become available.

Meanwhile, here is a summary of our current thoughts about the market, the economy where we have been and where we are going.  As you know we believe the stock market discounts the future direction of the economy.  Therefore, the best approach to profitable investing is based on fundamental evaluation of the markets and the economic outlook.  According to current consensus estimates of economic growth and corporate earnings the stock market is now fairly valued for the first time since 1998.  (According to most models the market was 70% overvalued at the highs last March).  Generally this lower valuation would mean less caution on our part and a more fully invested investment position.  We may well move in that direction shortly.  First, we want to evaluate upcoming earnings reports and the news affecting the Federal Reserve governors meeting in May.  These factors are important in determining our market outlook for the second half of this year.  While we are waiting, we are continuing to search for investment opportunities.  Although the market is closer to fair valuation we believe it will remain more volatile than in the recent past.  This combination of valuation and volatility should produce many shorter-term trading opportunities.  We intend to take advantage of as many as possible.  While this will cause more activity than in the past we will, where appropriate, attempt to minimize the tax consequences.

These are exciting times.  As we unveil new technology that we hope you will find useful we look forward to better markets that surely lie ahead.  We hope to discuss all of these changes with you soon.  As always, please call anytime and once again thank you for your patronage.

C. J. Brott, Jr.                                                                                     Karen Burns

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It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over
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