CI Outlook - Archives

Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2002

October 7, 2002

Mr. and Mrs. Investor
123 Elm Street
Dallas, Texas 72345

“A primary bear market is a long downward movement in the market that is interrupted by important rallies.  It is caused by various economic ills and does not terminate until stock prices have thoroughly discounted the worst that is apt to occur.”  -  Robert Rhea

Dear Investor,

            When we wrote last quarter that the main risk to the market was not headline related but business related we were talking about confidence.  Not consumer confidence, but businessmen’s confidence in their own business.  We were worried that business investment would not pick up in time to replace the consumers spending.  As it turns out new investment in capital goods did pick up in the second quarter.  Business was once again betting on a profitable future.   But that was not enough to restore investor confidence in the stock market.  Throughout the third quarter disbelief in the economy and fear of the next headline have ruled investor’s outlook for the future.  As Robert Rhea said so eloquently in 1932, this process will continue until securities prices reflect the sum of our fears.

As this is written we are awaiting the Presidents speech to the country on Iraq and the administrations decision on intervening in the longshoremen’s lock out.

The uncertainty of these events is certainly of a magnitude large enough to sap investor confidence.  We will know the market has seen its lows when this type of uncertainty fails to drive the stock market lower.  When market prices move sideways rather than lower in the presence of uncertainty and bad news we will have finished discounting the worst that is apt to occur.  Until then, we plan on remaining cautious with our investment approach to the market.

As always we thank you for your continuing patronage and look forward to talking to you at your convenience.  Please call and schedule a suitable time to review your portfolio and your investment goals.

 

            C. J. Brott, Jr.                                                                                  Karen Burns


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