CI Outlook - Archives

Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2003

July 3, 2003

 

Mr. and Mrs. Investor
123 Elm Street
Dallas, Texas 72345

IS THIS “DÉJÀ VU ALL OVER AGAIN”?

Dear Investor,

The results from the second quarter are in and they are pretty good.  So why would we use a quote from the great Yogi Berra to describe this market?  In brief here is the reason.  Every year since 2000 the stock market has anticipated a strong economic pickup, each time in the second half of the year.  Once again everyone is convinced the economy and the market will soar, later this year.  In anticipation the market has advanced strongly and the number of optimistic investment advisors has risen with it.  In fact the percentage of bullish advisors is higher now than in that fateful spring of 2000.

Where does that leave us and what are we going to do about it?  As usual our position is contrary to the majority.  We like the longer-term future of this market but short term we believe this will be a disappointing summer for the overly optimistic investment crowd.  Therefore, as a first defensive measure, we have already liquidated the large capitalization ETF in your account.  In addition we will take defensive measures with the specific stocks in your account.  We plan on selling those stocks that either reach their price target or no longer merit holding.  Until the market proves otherwise we will be slow in reinvesting the proceeds from those sales.  We plan to use this summer hiatus to research prospective companies for future investment.  In the meantime we will be actively monitoring our market models and will change our opinion if conditions warrant.

As always we welcome your questions and look forward to hearing from you at any time.  Thank you for your continuing patronage.

 

CJ Brott                                                                                              Karen Burns


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It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2003
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Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2002
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