CI Outlook - Archives

March 2009

March 4,2009

Markets are an expression of economic expectations.  As such the current new lows for market indices mirror the country’s grim mood.  Last month we had still hoped the November lows would hold, but remained wary of a buildup in speculative confidence.  Although we were wrong on the lows holding, we were justified in our caution, as news on the economy and the administrations plan to stimulate it proved too much for investors to bear.  The resulting avalanche of selling drove prices to new lows, and expectations for the future to levels of despair we have not seen since the decade of the 1970’s.  From these levels any positive news will serve to spark price advances in those securities being affected.  While this is a welcome situation, we do not believe widespread price advances will be justified in all sectors. 

The damage in financials is too deep to be easily undone.  The Obama administrations policies on healthcare may limit advances in that already elevated sector.  And consumer staples companies are still highly priced.  In our opinion the two cheap sectors that should benefit from the policies of the new administration will be materials, and technology.  As you know we like materials as a play on future inflation and group higher yielding energy companies with them.  Technology will benefit as alternative energy and the education communication initiatives are rolled out with the Obama infrastructure program.  These will be the areas where we will concentrate our search for investment ideas.  Until we find compelling investments we will remain cautious with your large cash reserves. 

We thank you for your investment business and look forward to any questions or comments you might have concerning your portfolio or the markets.

CJ Brott                                  Karen Burns

 


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