CI Outlook - Archives

April 2009

April 6, 2009

Since inauguration day the Obama administration has been very involved with trying to stave off economic decline.  The TARP program, combined with the economic stimulus bill has been followed up with a Federal Reserve decision to inject an additional $1.1 trillion into the economy through purchase of various government securities.  This effort to stave off a melt down of our shadow banking system, and restore liquidity to our financial institutions has resulted in rapidly fluctuating market conditions not seen since the 1980’s.

The first quarter of 2009 was one of the most volatile on record.  By early march the market was down almost 30% on the year, then recovered sharply but still closed down over 10% for the quarter.  Although we experienced some investment volatility the combination of cash and dividend paying stocks in your portfolio has helped us avoid significant losses so far this year.  Going forward we believe the economy will remain sluggish and unemployment will continue to be a problem.  However, it is beginning to appear that the psychological corner has been turned and investors are anticipating the worst of the market declines are behind us.  At this time we are inclined to agree and continue to seek out investments that will either pay current income, increase with the inflation we expect, or best of all do both.

As we enter into the earnings announcement season this week we hope that investor expectations are already so low that any surprises will be taken positively.  We are most interested in managements economic expectations for the rest of this year.  It just may be that business in general is already prepared for the worst and our governments enormous efforts to prevent it may work.  In that case investors prepared for a depression may need to rethink their position.

Enclosed with this letter you will find your quarterly report of investment results.  Please call us with any questions or comments.  Once again thank you for your investment business.

CJ Brott                 Karen Burns


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