CI Outlook - Archives

May 2009

May 4, 2009

So far this year our faith in the strength of companies that should benefit from future inflation has been rewarded. Higher prices in both materials and energy service companies have led the overall market higher.  The other areas of concentration where we have been invested, China and Brazil, have also performed well.  Looking ahead the investment challenge is two fold.  We need to find successful companies in other market sectors for investment, and ascertain the full extent of the current rally. 

As to the future of this rally there are two schools of thought.  One is that this is the beginning of a new bull market.  The other is that this is merely a rally in an ongoing bear market.  We subscribe to the latter view but believe this rally will go much further than seems justified.  Given this environment we will be investing with a shorter time horizon than normal. 

We are always looking for promising new ideas.  Not all of those ideas we find are appropriate for every client.  For example, if it was appropriate, today we bought a rapidly growing telecom company in Brazil, Vivo Holding Company.  This is a rising company in an expanding economy, and the industry looks very attractive.  However its dividend is limited, and although we expect rapid growth, it is not a suitable investment for risk adverse accounts.  As the market advance continues we will continue our research and add new investments, when suitable, as they become available.  In addition we will continue to monitor the market for signs that the rally has matured and attempt to manage your investment risk accordingly.

As you know we welcome all of your questions or comments and look forward to hearing from you.  Thank you for your continuing patronage.

 

CJ Brott               Karen Burns

 


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