CI Outlook - Archives

March 2010

March 10, 2010

At this time of year the normal seasonal tendency of the stock market is one of strength.  This year, even though the market displayed early weakness, it has almost recovered to its January highs.  And if the seasonal tendency holds, last Fridays jump is the start of a “normal” spring rally.  We believe this is how the current market will develop and, like last year, we intend to participate in the spring rally to the extent possible.

The difference between this year and last is twofold.  First, markets are not as cheap this year as they were last.  Second, unlike last year, our positive opinion on the market is held by a far greater percentage of investors.  Noting those two key differences we will be quicker to take gains and cut losses this year than last.  Paradoxically we may tend to remain more fully invested this year than last.  This is due to our view that growth in the earnings of smaller companies will be stronger this year.  Thus there should be a greater number of opportunities to take advantage of our stock selection methods.  Therefore, as we concentrate more of specific stocks and less on ETF’s, we will be subject to greater portfolio volatility.  Thus to protect capital while trying to maximize gains, we will be assuming a more active trading approach to the markets.  As always we will adapt this higher level of aggressiveness employed in your portfolio to your personal risk tolerance. 

We thank you for your business and welcome the opportunity to discuss your portfolio with you.

 

CJ Brott               Karen Burns

 


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