CI Outlook - Archives

May 2010

May 3, 2010

 

“Sell ‘em in May and go away”, is a well known market maxim.  Currently there is enough negative news to make that seem like good advice.  The headlines are so well known that we are calling them the “four G’s” Goldman, Greece, Government spending and the Gulf of Mexico.  Admittedly the news environment is worrisome, but as you know we tend to be a little contrarian and do not plan to sell.  In fact we are a somewhat encouraged by the way stock prices are holding up in the face so much negative news. 

Therefore we are going to rely on another old adage, “bull markets climb a wall of worry”.  The current crop of bad news certainly raises the wall to a very high level.  And this high level of concern is creating a large amount of caution amongst investors.  Investor caution is keeping record amounts of money on the sidelines and causing short sharp price declines about every two weeks.  It is these “mini corrections” which are keeping prices from becoming extremely extended to the upside.  And this is prolonging the market’s advance.  As long as we do not see a sharp high volume advance in the market the move forward should continue.

Of course there is a point where the news may temporarily overcome the ability of prices to rise, and the market will decline beyond its recent one to three day pattern.  In our opinion that could happen if the Dow Industrials fail to hold at 10,800.  Should that happen the market correction should be short and swift.  However, we think that once the correction runs its course the advance will continue.

Once again we thank you for your patronage and welcome any questions or comments you may have.

 

CJ Brott                         Karen Burns

 


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