CI Outlook - Archives

November 2010

November 5, 2010

While the last week held the potential for many surprises, any of which could have sparked massive market volatility, none occurred.  The election went as expected, the Fed introduced QEII, and employment statistics were exceptionally good.  This sets an economic and news background conducive to higher market prices between now and year end.  In addition to these events, which have clarified the outlook and allowed investors to become more confident, the White House is now talking about a compromise on taxes.  While all of these events add fuel to the fire none are as positive for the stock market as the effect of a pending massive reallocation in corporate pension funds, back from bonds to stocks.

In our opinion the current low interest rates and resulting actuarial return calculations for pension funds will force a shift in assets back to stocks.  This is made necessary by the fact that current return assumptions made for pension plans can no longer be fulfilled with low returns available in the fixed income markets.  Thus investments in alternatives are necessary.  Real estate, hedge funds, and other alternatives cannot absorb the massive amount of funds needing investment in a short period of time.  This leaves the stock market, the lone available alternative for this massive amount of cash.  Institutions are finding themselves in the same place as individual investors.  With record low rates on bonds, and the Fed forcing investors to take on more risk to earn any return, stocks become the most palatable alternative for investment funds.  Add to that the fact that most hedge funds and other aggressive investment pools are underperforming their benchmarks and the rush to get in has changed the market mood from cautious to raging bull, virtually overnight.  While this mood may become too jubilant, and the market may suffer a sharp pullback in the next week or two, we think between now and the end of the year the market will be higher.

With that background in mind we have removed our volatility hedge on the market and invested the proceeds in a leveraged S&P 500 ETF.  Our hope is to participate fully in any further market advance made between now and year end.

Once again thank you for your patronage.  Please call us with any questions concerning your portfolio.


CJ Brott                                   Karen Burns




July 2014
JUNE 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
Feburary 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
aPRIL 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
Yead End 2007
December 2007
November 2007
Third Quarter 2007
September 2007
Second Quarter 2007
June 2007
May 2007
First Quarter 2007
March 2007
February 2007
Year End 2006
December 2006
November 2006
Third Quarter 2006
September 2006
Second Quarter 2006
First Quarter 2006
Fourth Quarter 2005
Third Quarter 2005
Second Quarter 2005
First Quarter 2005
Newsletter Year End 2004
Client Newsletter 2nd Quarter 2004
First Quarter 2004
Newsletter - Year End 2003
It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2003
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2003
Newsletter - Year End 2002
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 4th Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2001
Newsletter - Year End 2000
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2000