CI Outlook - Archives

September 2009

September 4, 2009

This week’s financial press has been emphasizing the fact that last September was the beginning of the current financial meltdown.  Repeated references to the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the ensuing maelstrom can’t help but cause us to reflect on differences in the situation then and now.  The most obvious fact is that the S&P 500 is still 30% below its level of early September 2008.  Happily however, your investments have done well enough to restore account values to pre September 2008 levels.  Another thought we are discussing is how positive investment sentiment was going into last year’s disaster.   This year is a complete about face as the media is overflowing with negative foreboding concerning the seasonal weakness associated with the September – October period.  Looking into next year the majority of experts see little if any hope for the short term future of either the market or the economy.   Most think the recovery will start late next year or perhaps in 2011. 

Looking forward we are not that negative.  Although we believe the economy will remain sluggish we recognize that all economic revivals begin as “jobless” recoveries.  We are more worried that, due to politics, the Fed will be unable to withdraw economic stimulus when it is appropriate.  That is why we continue to believe that the current deflation we are experiencing will not last as long as believed.  As you know we have been and remain concerned about the danger of inflation when the recovery gains momentum.  However, for the foreseeable future we have moderated our opinion about a near term onset of inflation and believe we may be faced with a period of very low inflation and interest rates.  That environment is the famous “goldilocks” environment which is very positive for investment markets.  Therefore we will be investing in the markets and holding less cash as opportunities present themselves.

Thank you for your patronage, please call with any questions or comments.

 

CJ Brott               Karen Burns  


July 2014
JUNE 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
Feburary 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
aPRIL 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
Yead End 2007
December 2007
November 2007
Third Quarter 2007
September 2007
Second Quarter 2007
June 2007
May 2007
First Quarter 2007
March 2007
February 2007
Year End 2006
December 2006
November 2006
Third Quarter 2006
September 2006
Second Quarter 2006
First Quarter 2006
Fourth Quarter 2005
Third Quarter 2005
Second Quarter 2005
First Quarter 2005
Newsletter Year End 2004
Client Newsletter 2nd Quarter 2004
First Quarter 2004
Newsletter - Year End 2003
It Ain't Over 'Till It's Over
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2003
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2003
Newsletter - Year End 2002
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2002
Newsletter - 4th Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2001
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2001
Newsletter - Year End 2000
Newsletter - 3rd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 2nd Quarter 2000
Newsletter - 1st Quarter 2000