CI Outlook - Archives

November 2008

October is finally over!  This October was one of the worst months on record, and was responsible for nearly half of this year’s losses.  November is starting off on a far better note, with higher quotations in markets both here and abroad.  This is a continuation of the rally that began in the middle of October, when the Dow Jones traded as low as 7800.  Since that time the government has begun to implement its bailout plan, and the country has elected a new president.  Relief from these uncertainties has lowered investor anxiety levels and contributed to the current rally.  That is the rally we had planned on using to reshuffle your portfolio, selling less promising securities and redeploying the proceeds into more promising investments.

Recently we began the process selling some stocks which provided little or no dividend income, and replacing those securities with stocks such as Alcoa, yielding 6%, and Freeport preferred yielding 14.5%.  At present our plan is to continue selling lower yielding stocks and replacing them with higher yielding stocks whose prices we think are unduly depressed.  We plan on leaving cash reserves in money market funds and buying new ideas with the proceeds of liquidations.

At present we are continuing to examine new investments which provide current income, either dividends or interest.  It is our opinion that the economy will remain sluggish and continue to contract into the first half of 2009.  Under these conditions current income, while awaiting the resumption of economic growth, is the best course of action.  We know the market always looks ahead and therefore will turn up well ahead of the economy.  When this happens, and the market stabilizes and starts to “look over” the economic valley, we plan seek out more aggressive growth oriented stocks.  At that time we will begin investing cash reserves.  Until that time our plan is to remain defensive, hoarding cash and reinvesting the proceeds of any sales into higher yielding securities. 

Thank you for your business.  Please call us with any questions or comments.

 

CJ Brott               Karen Burns


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